My experiments with the train(2)

I've tried to apply Algorithmic Techniques to find out
the worst case probability in catching the 0707 Transpennine
service from Manchester Picadilly to Liverpool Lime Street.
The worst case is based on the assumptions(or rather facts):
"I get up late"
"I spend about five minutes to extract some oil from a
frozen bottle to apply on my hair"
"I am prompted by my parents to eat something before leaving"
"It rains like never before so that so that I've to search my Umbrella"
"In the above process I miss the 0635 Stage Coach bus to Picadilly"
"I catch the 0650 bus"
"The driver is half asleep"
"The passengers from all around the world find only one bus,my bus"
"I've no luck with the traffic lights"
"There is a long queue in the escalators of the station"
"The train keeps time"

I ended up not in a probability but a decison :
"Bunk the first lecture,forget the ticket cost"